(When) To bet, or not to bet?
This is the first in a series of short posts giving you some insights to increase your ROI. No more than 500 words and a 3 minute read, we hope you find them all useful.
Bet Execution is one of the most over looked technical aspects of successful betting. I would go as far as to say, it is the single most important skill to acquire if you want to bet successfully. You can build a profitable betting strategy on good execution alone (see Arbitrage!).
I once read a quote from a Pro Punter along the lines of…"see price, like price, take price”.
This is far too naïve for my liking, and although I am confident the source of the quote is a profitable bettor, they may not realise just how much money they are leaving on the table by treating their bet execution with such contempt.
There are many nuances to the betting market life cycle that you can leverage to optimise your bet execution. And as counter intuitive as it may sound, sometimes, waiting after you see a value price, can be a positive EV play for your betting.
Let’s think about the aspects of the betting market and the different factors we can use to improve execution. Firstly, from the perspective of the bookmaker:
Market Depth & Liquidity
Early lines are posted with larger overrounds than when they close, and with only a handful of bookmakers (often copying a single price source). Ask yourself, just how wrong is the price and will it last? Is the size of what you can get down at the current market, multiplied by the expected margin, greater than what you can get down after a standard price cut and 2X the stake size due to more books now up with prices?
Bookmaker Pricing Strategies
Bookmaker overrounds are not static (this may surprise some new bettors), but they are one part of a bespoke pricing strategy, and it will change based on proximity to kick off (and sometimes competitors overrounds).
Hypothetically, you may have observed a market enough to notice Bookmaker A, B or C go from 104% to 103% at 8am Saturday morning to be more competitive. Therefore, if you are executing your bets at 7am thinking you’re beating the crowd, you could be costing yourself EV compared to executing at 8.01am. The same theory can apply with limits in the Asian markets. If limits go up 12 hrs out, don’t execute 13 hrs out with less liquidity but likely the same price to execute.
And now, let’s look at our fellow Market Participants
Another nuance often overlooked… is there consistency to the market participants driving the market? Do you notice significant markets moves occurring at regular times? When does Asia come online and how quickly do the soft books react? When do the syndicates operate? If there are significant moves on many matches in the same league within a few minutes, you can be pretty sure one of the syndicate has gone through those matches. Can you pre-empt these moves and improve your execution? Does a popular tipping line go live 24 hrs out and is it profitable to fade their selections after this move?
There are many ways to optimise your bet execution. Market behaviour varies from league to league, Sport to Sport. When your observations & knowledge can identify consistent behaviour of some sort, you can add significant % to your expected returns through execution.
Don’t just “see a price, like a price, take a price”.
If you want to find out more ways to improve your betting, get in touch at firstname.lastname@example.org