Dairy of a Pro - part 2
Updated: Jul 15, 2020
Part 2 - First Season as a Pro
I’m going to start this second part at the end. As i’m writing this, we are surrounded by league postponements due to Covid-19 and it is becoming increasingly apparent the season is likely over. Below are the bulk of my Asia results for the season so far (*I use Sportmarket, they are the best broker i have used. Brilliant Customer Service, check them out HERE if you live outside the UK, or have a non UK address you can use).
Sportmarket Turnover = 386k
Profit = 34.9k
ROI = 9%
As you can see, I'm tracking nicely in Asia. This was partly due to variance, but also due to becoming an improved bettor. This is by far the most overlooked aspect of going Full time. I now spend at least three times longer on my betting...that is x3 more analysis, research, ratings, execution. Every part of my process has improved. Some of that i can quantify (Asia EV has gone up from 3% last season, to just under 5% this season). And some of it is harder to quantify (better read on market and timing of my bet execution). But I would say to anyone spending a couple of hours a week on betting...put more time into this, whatever you can manage, and you will notice your performance and expected returns improve directly as a result. This is an obvious statement and is probably true for most pursuits, but should not be overlooked. The time invested, following the correct process, will lead to better results.
I do think back to the education in the Orio Sports course (visit HERE), and some of the areas they cover (team ratings, player adjustments, bet execution, collecting and using xG) was crucial to show me how to invest that extra time to increase my returns.
One Week in the Life
It’s useful for any aspirational Pro to see what a week in the life of a Pro Punter looks like. I'm covering 6 leagues across England & Scotland and spend about 60 hours a week “working” in some way or another.
Review the weekend for all leagues. Look at what the markets did (using Oddsportal), who got backed, who was opposed, what late moves were there? Record some comments on my sheets about who was strong/weak and investigate why (if it’s something I don't know already). Was it due to line ups? Or does it look like the bigger players in the market have upgraded/downgraded a team?
Do some qualitative research from the Weekend fixtures. Read match reviews, watch some highlights clips and big chances (Wyscout), check the lineups and team news, making notes on anything that impacted the team strength. Then move on to my ratings. I mostly use the Orio xG data to update my team ratings and also historical closing odds. I generate odds for the fixtures in my spreadsheet, have a look at those ratings and prices and adjust anything from my notes & analysis that the spreadsheet generated prices does not contain. I always do this before I have looked at the early prices so my perspective of my ratings is not influenced by the market. I’ll also adjust for anything I know at this stage that will impact the upcoming fixtures price (injuries, suspensions, schedule etc). Only after I've completed this, will I go and check the market odds for my leagues.
Because I don't cover the big leagues, so on a normal week (matches on Saturday) I will avoid checking the market odds until Wednesday morning. The Asian market opens on low limits and it isn't worth taking a price for the amount available. Wednesday morning, check the markets, compare versus my prices and start to formulate a list of potential bets. Any price that is >3% EV i will look at in more detail. The shortlist is on average twice as big as the bet list. On a normal week it might be 30-50% of games that make the shortlist for either Handicap or Totals bets. I revisit all of these games and do further research for any required adjustments. This allows me to have 100% confidence in my price and not have missed anything that causes me to strike a bad bet. I will also begin to think about any large value selections and what their likelihood is of dropping (someone else taking that price before the weekend). Immediately, the bet execution strategy is being considered and actioned upon where necessary.
Very similar to Wednesday, as there are a lot of fixtures showing value where I need to finalise prices. I will tend to leave the lowest leagues I cover until Thursday. This is because of the limits being lowest and also the availability of information can sometimes be easier to get closer to match day.
By the time we get to Friday, I am in Bet Execution mode. Between now and 3pm Saturday I am executing on average, 20-25 selections. My starting point is current value and expected risk of the prices shortening. The highest value selections with what I perceive to be the highest risk of shortening are the selections I will begin betting on at this point. It may sound obvious, but I always will execute on channels where it wont move the price. I’ll exhaust these avenues (access to soft bookmakers varies week to week, and Shop prices are hit and miss with larger % overrounds).
Match day and the day when the larger individual stakes are placed. The day starts for the big syndicates at around 4am when action on Australian and Asian leagues take place. You can begin to see big moves in leagues from this time onwards as the syndicates execute large bets through their brokers. I will start at 7am and check the prices of all my value selections. Any that look like they are shortening, I will prioritise betting first. Any that are going the other way, I will leave and observe the market. Between checking the market, I'll do a final check on team news, previews, lineup projections. Tweetdeck is a necessity on these days. Having visibility of instant, ongoing information streams is really important. It can sometimes give you reasons for a drift/shorten if a strong expected starter is rumoured to be out. Most weeks, all of my bets are placed by lunchtime, and then I focus on potential lineup opportunities. I’ll make a list of any doubts, or any key players that have a chance of missing or being rested for any reason. Shortlist a few games and then glue myself to Tweetdeck before the 2pm line up release. Some weeks you’ll have nothing from lineups, some weeks you’ll miss a big move, other weeks you’ll get a great opportunity and execute before the price move. Your preparation is crucial on this as you can't read all the lineups you need simultaneously.
3pm, bets are on and I'm already recording them into my spreadsheet with a column for the closing price. This is really important and something the Orio course hammers home to you. Results week to week are so random and volatile. But if I know I'm beating the closing price, I know I will win long term.
Rest day, time to switch off and recharge for 24 hours before going at it again next week!