Diary of a Pro - part 3
Part 3 - Lessons & the Future
I am hopeful my journey to becoming a Pro and also an insight into my typical week gives you a better understanding of what it takes to be a profitable punter and what you need to do to get there.
The final part of this series, i will give you some specific advice based on what i have learnt in the last 9 months betting full-time. And please do not think i am the finished article, i am learning new things about myself and the market every single day.
Lesson 1 - The more time you put in, the more you get out
We all read those statistics about 98% of punters losing money. Why do you think that is? Because 98% of punters don't put any effort into trying to win. They look at the fixtures, give it the big opinion (City can’t lose, United are rubbish), load up their account and place a bet. Maybe some will find the best price, maybe others will use the Exchange. The only difference is they will lose at a slower rate.
Invest time in this and you will get more out. There is no quick win or “system” that you can plug in and win. Make sure you do more than 98% of bettors and you will see the rewards. It won't be immediately, but maybe 1 month, 3 months, 12 months later, you will be a better punter than you were.
Lesson 2 - Educate yourself
Do not shy away from education. Invest time & money into quality education. The OrioSports course is a brilliant resource and I have won many times over the cost of the course (find out more HERE) and haven't seen anything else like it. But don't stop there...learn more about mathematical models, learn advanced Excel or even some beginner coding (this is something i am looking at for next season. Khan academy & Datacamp look great resources). Read about the financial markets, the betting markets, industry news. Study Football Analytics blog, become an expert in every aspect of what you do.
Lesson 3 - Record & analyse your performance
This view can divide opinion, but I have learnt more from analysing my performance than any other single aspect of my betting. For some reason, a few hardened punters seem to think the only analysis of your betting that matters is your p&l. This is so wrong, i do not know where to start! Every industry in the world analyses performance to find how to improve. Sports, Business, Trading, they all analyse past performance to improve their future success. Betting is no different, record all your bets, record the closing price, comment on how the market behaved, why it was a bet, where your ratings were right/wrong and what could you do differently or repeat next time?
I have set myself some goals for next season. I am a strong believer in personal goal setting as a way to get the best out of yourself. Think about where you want to be, what you need to achieve to get there, and break down the actions required to achieve your goals.
Goal 1 - Increase my League coverage
The easiest way to increase my turnover, is duplicate my approach and cover more leagues. The obvious place to start is leagues that don't clash with my 3pm leagues. I will be looking at Summer Leagues (Scandinavia) and some Friday/Sunday leagues where possible. This means I can increase turnover but keep my schedule manageable and utilize my time effectively. I am confident in my process now, that I can replicate in a new league. The only restriction is time. But with improved efficiency in my process, and putting some thought into the next leagues I choose and their calendar, I can maximise my efforts.
Goal 2 - Increase EV & bet count on existing leagues
It’s important to always focus on these metrics together. There’s no point maximising EV if it’s at the cost of Bet Count. If that happens, my projected earnings will likely go down. By becoming better at what I do, analysing my mistakes and what I get right, I can continue to place more good bets (+EV bets) and reduce the number of bad bets I place.
Goal 3 - Develop Beginner Coding & Advanced Excel skills
I am a practical learner. I was never someone who could just read & study and I struggled to apply myself in school (a telling sign, leaving and working in a betting shop!). But i am someone who can study something if i can see the results and the impact it has. I’ve learned Excel through betting on Football and I can see the obvious advantages of improving my skills in this area. Covering more leagues means better processes, saving time wherever necessary. The time I invest improving my skills here will have a direct impact on my betting winnings in the future.
And that is me. I hope you the reader finds some part of this story useful in your own betting. I’ve linked some resources that could be interesting to some of you.
Some Helpful Resources (*note we at Orio Sports are not affiliated with any of these sites, purely a recommendation from our Pro)