I was fortunate enough to attend the recent “Chat with Traders” Live Podcast in Sydney with John “Rambo” Moulton being the Trader interviewed for this particular episode.
For those of you not aware of the Podcast or John… Chat with Traders is a regular Podcast where the host, Aaron Fifield, speaks to successful traders to try and uncover the keys to their success. As you’d expect, it is Financial Markets centric, but there have been a couple of Sports Traders interviewed previously. It’s a fantastic show, and I’d highly recommend it. Many of the skills discussed are applicable to successful Sports Betting.
Check out the Podcast Here -> ChatwithTraders
John Moulton is one of the largest volume “locals” trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. For an insight into John and his trading, watch the documentary “Bulls and Bears” where John is the undoubted star of the program.
Watch John in action -> Bulls and Bears
As you can imagine, there was a huge amount to learn from John as he spoke for 90 mins and also answered a number of questions from the audience. I’ve compiled a short selection of key points I felt are applicable for those of you learning your way in the Sports markets. These aren’t technical (given the different context of financial markets John trades), they are about mentality, attitude & methodology:
“Learn How to Lose”
Anyone can do “Winning” well, it’s how you deal with adversity and losing that defines your betting. At some point in your betting, that cruel mistress we know as Variance, will turn against you. At the time, it will feel like everything you touch goes wrong. Late minute goals, missed penalties, open goals ballooned over the bar, it will all happen. Work out how you deal with these moments best. It’s all very well me suggesting “follow your process and keep making good bets”, but often something more is required to regain your composure. John discussed his attitude to P&L, he would go months without checking his overall P&L. What a fantastic approach to managing losses, ignore them. If you can avoid following P&L match by match and acknowledge results on a wider timeframe, weekly or even monthly, it will allow you to focus on the inputs of your process and not the final output of results. Whatever the method of dealing with losses, time off, a change of scenery, a therapist! Be proactive and manage your losing streaks like a pro. It is these moments that define your P&L.
John described how his motivation for Trading has always been the problem solving, not financial gains. There are many people who enter betting & trading for the financial rewards. Unfortunately, if your primary goal is wealth, you are destined to fail in almost any endeavor you pursue. Success takes more tenacity, hard work & determination than can be found in financially motivated traders. You are likely to either not put in the work required to succeed or become too focused on your results to ever truly excel. Love the game, love the challenge, love the puzzle, love the sports you bet on, but don’t begin this journey because of the money.
“Subconscious Decision Making”
Watching markets for 11 hours a day, John spoke about how his subconscious would become attuned to the market and his expert knowledge & experience would be able to translate this into a good trading decision more often than not. In today’s age of the “algorithm”, we can often forget the power of the human brain. Football is a fluid sport and there is so much that is hard to quantify. If you are spending hours watching the markets, or watching matches, there is an infinite amount of information you are absorbing. Through experience you will be able to apply this information at the right time to maximise your own returns.
The ability to balance your ego is crucial to success in the markets. Too little and this brings doubt to your decision making. Too much and it will cloud your decision making as you ignore what the markets and numbers are telling you. Confidence with humility, I know I am likely right, until I am told otherwise.
I hope these concepts have resonated with you when you think about your own approach to your betting, and how you can improve in the psychological aspects of successful betting.